Perhaps a Short Era of Bad Feelings

Obviously I'm not happy the United Conservative Party won the most seats in yesterday's provincial election. I find most of their policies regressive, abhorrent, and inimical to human happiness and quality of life not just in Alberta, but beyond. 

On the other hand, the provincial New Democrats just formed the largest Official Opposition in Alberta history, and they have grown their vote share election after election. It's possible that beginning in 2015, Alberta entered an era of not-necessarily-uninterrupted right-wing rule. New Democrats have proven that progressives can win and can come close to winning. 

Indeed, had less than two thousand votes swung from the UCP to the NDP in Calgary, the NDP would have won a majority of seats. As things stand, when you consider the UCP needs to elect a speaker and one of their MLAS will sit as an independent because of her sickening comments about transgendered people during the campaign, the UCP's majority is really quite narrow--only a handful of seats. The election being this close may possibly stop the UCP from being too cavalier about inflicting their worst policies on Albertans, lest they swing just a few too many moderates away from the UCP and over to the New Democrats in 2027. 

It's a sliver of hope for more rational governance. That's what I cling to today. 

An Optimist's Vote

Adapted from a Facebook post from yesterday...

Sylvia and I just returned home after voting in today's Alberta provincial election. We supported the re-election bid of Jon Carson, a member of Rachel Notley's New Democratic Party. Effectively, this means we're voting for another four years of Notley/NDP government in Alberta.

I worked for the Alberta Liberal caucus for six and a half years because I thought at the time they were the best progressive alternative to the late-era PCs. But I was happy to vote for the NDP in 2015 because Rachel Notley and her team proved they had the drive and the vision to bring long-overdue change to Alberta. Since being elected, they've governed sensibly during incredibly challenging times, bringing dignity to the Legislature and making the tough decisions needed for our long-term prosperity: doing the incredibly hard work of starting real economic diversification, instituting a carbon tax to curb our emissions, winding down coal, improving farm safety, cutting child poverty in half, setting a minimum wage, and protecting the vulnerable. The UCP would deliberately undo all that progress and waste millions of taxpayer dollars on referenda on issues that are outside the realm of provincial power anyway. On top of all that, Rachel Notley and her people have run a virtually scandal-free government, whereas the UCP has corruption built in thanks to their tainted leadership race, vandalism of election signs (sometimes using fascist iconography) and utterly vile pronouncements from a number of UCP candidates, most left unrebuked by leader Jason Kenney.

Despite having worked for the Liberals for years and my support for the NDP now, I don't consider myself a partisan. I'll vote for any team that fights for my values: compassion, reason, science-based decision making, long-term thinking, support for public institutions, care for the vulnerable, ethical behaviour. Right now, Rachel's NDP is the best fit for me, and, I believe, this province. In a few hours, I'll find out if my fellow Albertans agree. 

A Bittersweet Victory, or: Orange with Envy

As a progressive I'm naturally pretty thrilled by Albertans' decision to elect an NDP government in Alberta last night. I believe new premier Rachel Notley has the smarts, compassion and grit to make Alberta a better place. 

But at the same time I'm sad that I wasn't a part of such a historic moment - and I could have been. Back in 2006 I took a job with Kevin Taft's Liberals because I honestly believed that party stood the best chance of toppling the Progressive Conservatives. Even though I considered myself a New Democrat at heart, Taft's Liberals were progressive enough to pass muster, at least when factoring in the pragmatic desire to win government. 

Well, we all know how that turned out. During the six and a half years and two elections I stuck with the Liberals, we went through three leaders and lost a little less than half our MLAs with each passing vote. After the election of 2012 I'd finally had enough, and moved on. 

I'm proud of the work I did for the Liberals, and I don't regret my years with them. But today I wish I'd followed my heart and dreamed bigger. It would have been pretty amazing to be on Notley's team, to experience victory rather than defeat, and to know that victory meant a better tomorrow for Albertans - particularly the vulnerable and disadvantaged, or so I hope and believe. 

While I'm disappointed in myself, my failure of imagination or simple cowardice - call it what you want - merely highlights the virtues of those stalwart New Democrat volunteers and perennial candidates who finally earned their richly deserved rewards last night. I'm very happy for the many Albertans who bled orange for years or even decades for their moment in history. 

Perhaps the most bittersweet moment for me was watching my friend Naomi's sister, Jessica Littlewood, win Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville for the NDP handily. When I ran there in 2008 against Ed Stelmach, he beat me by 10,000 votes. And in a strange coincidence, Naomi shot my official photographs for my campaign. Needless to say I'm delighted for Jessica and Naomi, but it doesn't take any of the sting out of that 2008 loss. 

What's important, though, is not that any particular person or party wins any particular election. What's important is that we govern ourselves with wisdom and caring, and there are people in every political party who really do have the best interests of the people at heart. That's why I'm so happy Liberal leader David Swann held on to his seat last night; he'll continue to be an important voice for public health care and farm worker safety in the Legislature, and this time around the governing party might be more sympathetic to his concerns. We can hope! 

An Orange Alberta

The NDP forms a majority government in Alberta tonight. It's a day I thought I'd never see. My reaction is excitement tinged with a hint of bittersweetness. More on that tomorrow.

Alberta Election Prediction 3 of 3

Well, here we are - if the polls are correct and people actually show up to vote and they vote the way they told the pollsters they would and if the anger I'm reading on the streets is real and not merely confined to Edmonton...than Alberta - Alberta! - could wind up with a majority NDP government sometime tomorrow night.

I can hardly believe the results myself, but I went through each riding, looked at the candidates, consulted a number of election prediction websites, compared that to my own knowledge (or lack of same) of particular ridings and incumbents, and then made my own choices, some of which (heck, many of which) might seem counter-intuitive to most Albertans, including me.

As you can see, I imagine an NDP breakthrough in the big cities, Edmonton's surrounding suburbs, the smaller cities and a few of the large towns out west. A few PCs escape the wrath of the voters in Calgary and rural Alberta, while the Wildrosers practically sweep the countryside. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark deposes Gordon Dirks, and my poor Alberta Liberals are reduced to two seats, both in Calgary. (I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up with anywhere between zero and four seats, though - Mountainview, McCall, Red Deer North and Edmonton Centre at best. But I think most traditional Alberta Liberal voters - like me - are going to back the strongest progressive choice, and at this point in time, that's the New Democrats.)

Interestingly, in my model all of the party leaders survive. I have the strangest vision of Jim Prentice losing his seat but...naaaaaah. 

Inartful Dodging

Having worked in politics for nearly seven years I've seen a lot of disgusting performances from parliamentarians, but this exchange really takes the cake. You'd think the ruling party could answer a reasonable question about Canadian troops in Iraq, but instead the Minister transparently attempts to smear the NDP. I suppose I shouldn't expect anything better from this government, but the tiny core of hope and optimism left inside my heart dies a little each time I see something like this. Mulcair was right to call out the Speaker for failing to censure or at least caution the government side on relevance. 

'Tis the Season to be Polling

Upon returning home tonight our phone rang and I found myself answering a poll conducted by Chase Research or Chase Marketing - I didn't catch the full name. With a provincial election around the corner these polls will start to fly fast and furious, and I sometimes entertain myself by guessing whether or not the poll was commissioned by a neutral party or hired by a political party in order to push the results in directions favouring that party.

I have a feeling Chase may have been hired by the Wildrosers. I say that because in addition to asking the standard questions - "If an election were held today, would you vote for party a, party b, party c" etc. - they also asked whether or not you had favourable or unfavourable views of Premier Redford and Wildrose leader Danielle Smith. They didn't ask this question about the other party leaders. They also claimed that Premier Redford is considering raising taxes and listed a number of way she might do so. And finally, they asked whether or not the illegal contribution scandal would make you more or less likely to change your vote/make it more or less likely to vote PC, one of the Wildrose party's pet issues. (To be fair, this question might also be asked by a firm hired by the Liberals; we've been pushing the issue pretty hard too.)

Sometime in the next few days, the results of this poll will be released to the media, and more likely than not the media will provide plenty of coverage regardless of whether or not the poll was conducted legitimately. Of course my own analysis is mere conjecture, but if an average citizen like me can smell something fishy about the way these questions were asked, you'd think the fourth estate would start asking questions too.

Jack Layton

Jack Layton died this morning, and like countless other Canadians from across the political spectrum, I'm deeply saddened. Jack was a courageous crusader who clearly wanted to build a better nation for every citizen. During the last election, he outlined a positive vision for our country with passion, conviction and sincerity and led the federal New Democrats to their greatest electoral success ever. Jack earned that victory.

As a progressive, I mourn the loss of a man who embodied quintessential Canadian values: social justice, free speech, multiculturalism, trust, decency and integrity.

Before he died, Jack Layton gave Canada two last gifts. His victory in Quebec has, one hopes, helped heal the rift between that beautiful province and English-speaking Canada. And just a couple of days ago, he wrote an open letter to Canadians of astounding power and beauty. It concludes like this:

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.

All my very best,
Jack Layton

Earlier today my own leader, Dr. David Swann, offered his thoughts on Layton's passing. They echo my own.

Today a stunned nation is coming to terms with the passing of a leader who died too soon. Jack Layton, Leader of the federal Official Opposition, is gone, mere months after having earned the title with the biggest NDP victory in history.


It seems unbearably cruel that Mr. Layton was denied the opportunity to lead his new Official Opposition caucus for more than a few months. As an Official Opposition Leader myself, I know how important it is for any province or nation to have a solid opposition to hold government accountable. I have no doubt that Jack would have been very effective in the role he earned in May.

Whatever his or her political affiliation, no Canadian can deny that Jack Layton lived to serve his country and his fellow citizens. His was a unique voice and a unique vision, and it was always clear that his primary motivation was the well-being of all Canadians. He tried to build a better country, and for that, we salute him.

On behalf of Alberta’s Official Opposition, I extend our sincere condolences to Mr. Layton’s loved ones and supporters.  

You will be remembered, Jack. Thank you for your service to the nation.

David Swann,
Leader of the Official Opposition