Alberta Election Prediction 3 of 3

Well, here we are - if the polls are correct and people actually show up to vote and they vote the way they told the pollsters they would and if the anger I'm reading on the streets is real and not merely confined to Edmonton...than Alberta - Alberta! - could wind up with a majority NDP government sometime tomorrow night.

I can hardly believe the results myself, but I went through each riding, looked at the candidates, consulted a number of election prediction websites, compared that to my own knowledge (or lack of same) of particular ridings and incumbents, and then made my own choices, some of which (heck, many of which) might seem counter-intuitive to most Albertans, including me.

As you can see, I imagine an NDP breakthrough in the big cities, Edmonton's surrounding suburbs, the smaller cities and a few of the large towns out west. A few PCs escape the wrath of the voters in Calgary and rural Alberta, while the Wildrosers practically sweep the countryside. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark deposes Gordon Dirks, and my poor Alberta Liberals are reduced to two seats, both in Calgary. (I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up with anywhere between zero and four seats, though - Mountainview, McCall, Red Deer North and Edmonton Centre at best. But I think most traditional Alberta Liberal voters - like me - are going to back the strongest progressive choice, and at this point in time, that's the New Democrats.)

Interestingly, in my model all of the party leaders survive. I have the strangest vision of Jim Prentice losing his seat but...naaaaaah. 

Lego Advent Calendar Haiku 2014 Days 17 and 18

Haiku passed over
Wildrose defection was huge
Politics over toys

General Reikann
Wants a mug of hot cocoa
Cop offers handcuffs

A Dark Day for Democracy in Alberta

Today Alberta's Leader of the Official Opposition, along with 8 other Wildrose MLAs, crossed the floor to join the governing Progressive Conservatives. In engineering this cynical ploy for power, both Smith, Prentice and their supporters have shown utter contempt for fundamental democratic principles.

To the best of my knowledge, never before in a parliamentary democracy has any Leader of the Official Opposition abdicated their responsibility with such blatant disregard for common decency.

And yet I place more of the blame on the governing PCs. With a comfortable majority, there was absolutely no reason they should have been party to this. A responsible government founded on principles of respect for voters and the common good would have understood that a strong opposition is good for the province. But Jim Prentice and his supporters proved today that they simply cannot abide opposition. This should anger and terrify anyone who cares about good governance.

I consider myself a democratic socialist, and yet today my greatest sympathies lie with the hundreds of thousands of Albertans who voted for the Wildrose party in the 2012 election. Betrayal is a hard word, but betrayed they were. Should one more Wildrose MLA join the government caucus - and rumors are flying that this will happen soon - then the Alberta Liberals will likely form the Official Opposition once again, despite losing that status in 2012. That outcome flies completely in the face of what voters chose in 2012, and as many readers know I worked for the Alberta Liberal caucus for six and a half years. Despite that, I would be appalled were Raj Sherman to become Leader of the Official Opposition again under these circumstances, even though I consider him a good man with the best interests of Albertans at heart.

(And yes, Raj crossed the floor as well - but he left the government caucus on a matter of true principle, and moved from government to opposition. However else you can characterize that move, it certainly wasn't an obvious grab for power.)

There's one more frightening possibility: perhaps the Premier suspects that Alberta's economy will worsen considerably - so much so that having a viable opposition extant during an economic collapse could actually set the stage for the end of the PC dynasty. In that scenario, this cynical maneuver actually makes sense. And if this supposition proves true, then Albertans should prepare ourselves for hard times indeed, especially if we care about public education, public health care, the arts and the vulnerable.

Even if that dark scenario doesn't come to pass, today Jim Prentice and Danielle Smith told voters that elections don't matter. When the next election comes I sincerely hope Albertans will prove them wrong.

Strategic Error

I've been a strategic voter since the federal election in 1993, voting Liberal or NDP depending upon who had the best chance of defeating the Reform/Alliance/Conservative candidate. Since I started working for the province's Official Opposition, I have of course voted consistently for the Alberta Liberals - not merely out of loyalty to my employer, but because I admire and respect the three leaders I've served and their caucuses, and I support the policies they've developed over the years.

But as the Wildrose Alliance surged during the current provincial election, I had a brief moment of weakness: was it time to return to strategic voting to stop a party even worse than the provincial PCs from forming government?

Living as I do in Edmonton-Meadowlark, Dr. Raj Sherman's constituency, there was never any question that I'd be voting anything but Liberal. But in conversations with progressive friends earlier this month, I admitted that I understood the reasons why they're considering holding their noses and voting PC. Indeed, my friend Stephen has crafted a very reasonable argument to that effect.

It's an argument the panicking PCs are using themselves, pleading with progressives to vote PC in order to stave off the horrifying spectre of a Bible-beating, fiscally libertarian Wildrose administration.

I believe that a Wildrose majority would be a bad outcome for Alberta. But is it really the worst possible outcome? Should progressive Albertans sacrifice their votes for the sake of a PC government that's intimidated health care professionals and municipal officials, consistently underfunded public education, mismanaged public health care into a state of ongoing crisis, solicited and accepted illegal political contributions and exposed teachers to being sued for discussing topics some parents are uncomfortable with? Can a Wildrose government really be worse than this?

Perhaps they can. But consider the consequences if progressive voters flock to the PCs and help re-elect the Redford administration: 

1) Progressive Albertans will lose their already tiny representation in the Alberta Legislature. What a tragedy it would be to lose Laurie Blakeman, a powerful advocate for human rights and the environment. Or Raj Sherman, who risked his career and gave up the cushiest job in politics (PC backbencher) for the most thankless (Leader of the Official Opposition). Or David Swann, a man who has entered war zones to help the world's most vulnerable people. Or Rachel Notley, Kent Hehr, Brian Mason, among others who have spoken out consistently to expose PC corruption, defend vulnerable Albertans and uphold progressive values. Do we really want to sacrifice these people to keep the PCs in power?

2) We'll be sending a message to the PCs that they really can get away with anything, without consequences. Send threatening letters to municipal officials, bully doctors, pass regressive legislation, continue the slow privatization of health care - that's okay with us, because we're afraid that Danielle Smith might be even worse!

3) We'll demoralize ourselves, perhaps forever. If progressive voters give up now, how can we ever believe that one day we might elect a Liberal, NDP, or Alberta Party government - any government that's at least a little more in tune with our values? If we deny the many brave and excellent candidates running for progressive parties our support, how can we expect future progressives to step forward? Running for election is expensive and risky for progressives; I know this from personal experience, having run last time.

Maybe the Liberal or ND or Alberta Party candidate in your riding is a long shot, but doesn't he or she deserve your support if he or she truly reflects your values?

One day, a progressive party of one stripe or another will form government in Alberta. It probably won't be tomorrow, and perhaps not 2016 either. But that day will certainly never come if we vote against our own interests instead of supporting the policies and people we really believe in.

Bottled Opportunities

Having allowed our collection of empty soda bottles, cans and milk cartons to build up for several months, I decided that today would be a good day to haul them to the bottle depot.

Under grey overcast skies I pulled our little crossover into the parking lot of the west end's Centennial Bottle Depot. I nabbed a Jysk shopping cart from the depot's illicit collection and used it to transport six garbage bags full of bottles from the car to the redemption windows.

While waiting in line I noticed the usual mix of middle-class folks and homeless Albertans, the first group returning bottles out of a sense of environmental duty, the second out of economic necessity - at least if my stereotype-based assumptions were true. Such assumptions are always dangerous, of course; I didn't look terribly middle-class myself in my sweat pants and t-shirt, my typical attire for messy chores like this.

When I reached one of the redemption windows, a notice from a City of Edmonton bylaw officer taped to the wall caught my eye. It ordered the removal of all shopping carts from the premises no later than January 2010. They represented "an eyesore," according to the city. While the Centennial manager had dutifully posted the order, a herd of shopping carts remained in defiance of the municipal government's demand.

While I sympathize with the city's desire to keep Edmonton clean and neat, it struck me once again that shopping carts and abandoned bottles represent perhaps the only economic opportunity available to homeless Albertans. Bottle deposit fees, shopping carts and consumer willingness to throw cans and bottles in the garbage instead of recycling them has created an entirely new economy. Homeless Albertans take advantage of consumer laziness and spend their days collecting bottles, turning them in for dimes and quarters.

None of this is news to anyone, but it still astounds me that western culture has allowed itself to evolve to the point where our least fortunate citizens are forced to dig through garbage to earn a daily pittance. I turned in six bags of bottles today, earning about $75. It took about six months of normal consumption for Sylvia and I to generate that many empties. Perhaps an industrious homeless person might be able to collect an equivalent amount from the city's garbage containers in a day. But even if such a person could earn $100 a day, they're still risking disease and injury for an amount of money that might, barely, cover food and lodging. What a remarkably cheap way for society to pay for an essential service.

And yet we begrudge these bottle collectors even the meager dignity of this industrious pursuit. Grocery stores routinely demand quarters or loonies to unchain their shopping carts, business owners chase collectors away from their trash bins and bylaw officers sanction businesses for allowing shopping carts to accumulate. Of course businesses want to protect their property, and naturally it's in everyone's best interest to have a presentable community. But I wonder what options we're leaving for the people being left behind. For years and years Alberta's Auditor General has been begging the government to invest more in mental health services, a key factor in helping get people off the street. And yet the government response has been incredibly sluggish. And while the provincial government and Alberta's municipalities deserve kudos for the progress they've made on the ten-year plan to alleviate homelessness, we're now faced with the spectre of a government led by free-market fundamentalists, the Ayn Rand-loving Wildrose party. How will Alberta's homeless fare in an environment even further right-leaning than our current PC government?

I have a feeling Ayn Rand and Danielle Smith would probably say that homeless folks collecting bottles is merely the free market performing its magic once again. But shouldn't we aim for a society in which no one needs to rifle through garbage to earn some loose change?

'Tis the Season to be Polling

Upon returning home tonight our phone rang and I found myself answering a poll conducted by Chase Research or Chase Marketing - I didn't catch the full name. With a provincial election around the corner these polls will start to fly fast and furious, and I sometimes entertain myself by guessing whether or not the poll was commissioned by a neutral party or hired by a political party in order to push the results in directions favouring that party.

I have a feeling Chase may have been hired by the Wildrosers. I say that because in addition to asking the standard questions - "If an election were held today, would you vote for party a, party b, party c" etc. - they also asked whether or not you had favourable or unfavourable views of Premier Redford and Wildrose leader Danielle Smith. They didn't ask this question about the other party leaders. They also claimed that Premier Redford is considering raising taxes and listed a number of way she might do so. And finally, they asked whether or not the illegal contribution scandal would make you more or less likely to change your vote/make it more or less likely to vote PC, one of the Wildrose party's pet issues. (To be fair, this question might also be asked by a firm hired by the Liberals; we've been pushing the issue pretty hard too.)

Sometime in the next few days, the results of this poll will be released to the media, and more likely than not the media will provide plenty of coverage regardless of whether or not the poll was conducted legitimately. Of course my own analysis is mere conjecture, but if an average citizen like me can smell something fishy about the way these questions were asked, you'd think the fourth estate would start asking questions too.