Earl's 2026 Oscar Predictions

I've seen every film on this ballot save for Avatar: Fire and Ash, so technically I suppose this is the best-informed about the Oscar nominees that I've ever been. All this means is my guesses have a tiny bit more weight to them than they normally would, but who can predict the tastes of the Academy's actual voters? Not me. 
 
Here's how I rank the ten Best Picture nominees, starting at the bottom and working my way up:  

• F1: Beautiful score and visuals, painfully predictable story
• Frankenstein: Incredible makeup and costumes, but adds nothing new to the myth
• The Secret Agent: Love the surreal bits and the cinematography, the rest feels fairly rote
• Marty Supreme: Competently told but predictable
• Hamnet: Beautiful production design and a powerful, transcendent finale
• Train Dreams: Just lovely start to finish
• Sinners: Bold, exciting, scary, a powerful metaphor for the Black experience
• Sentimental Value: Engaging, with heart-rending performances
• Bugonia: Superb acting, suspenseful, with Yorgos' trademark surreality
• One Battle after Another: Captures the chaos of the world we're enduring right now