Alberta Election Prediction 3 of 3

Well, here we are - if the polls are correct and people actually show up to vote and they vote the way they told the pollsters they would and if the anger I'm reading on the streets is real and not merely confined to Edmonton...than Alberta - Alberta! - could wind up with a majority NDP government sometime tomorrow night.

I can hardly believe the results myself, but I went through each riding, looked at the candidates, consulted a number of election prediction websites, compared that to my own knowledge (or lack of same) of particular ridings and incumbents, and then made my own choices, some of which (heck, many of which) might seem counter-intuitive to most Albertans, including me.

As you can see, I imagine an NDP breakthrough in the big cities, Edmonton's surrounding suburbs, the smaller cities and a few of the large towns out west. A few PCs escape the wrath of the voters in Calgary and rural Alberta, while the Wildrosers practically sweep the countryside. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark deposes Gordon Dirks, and my poor Alberta Liberals are reduced to two seats, both in Calgary. (I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up with anywhere between zero and four seats, though - Mountainview, McCall, Red Deer North and Edmonton Centre at best. But I think most traditional Alberta Liberal voters - like me - are going to back the strongest progressive choice, and at this point in time, that's the New Democrats.)

Interestingly, in my model all of the party leaders survive. I have the strangest vision of Jim Prentice losing his seat but...naaaaaah. 

Alberta Leaders' Debate 2015

As I expected, tonight's debate wasn't particularly dramatic. No one made any lethal gaffes, no one landed any devastating blows. I thought the NDP's Rachel Notley fared best, with a warm, sincere performance; she painted herself as a moderate, sensible alternative quite effectively.

Premier Prentice was mostly pretty poised, though I found it interesting he focused most of his ire at the NDP. His condescending "I know math is hard" line was the low point of the night.

Brian Jean came off as hilariously robotic, but he stayed on-message the entire night, with few slips, and I was bowled over when he acknowledged the very real threat of climate change. Good for him.

My old friend David Swann showed a lot of compassion and handled himself well during the latter half of the debate, but his tendency to read from notes hurt him a little, I think; he didn't make enough eye contact with the camera, and knocking his own binder onto the floor at one point was a little awkward.

All in all, I think this debates helps the NDP a little bit, hurts the PCs a little bit, and leaves the Wildrose and Liberal parties right where they are. 

Alberta Election Prediction 1 of 3

Albertans go back to the polls on May 5. The upheaval in Alberta politics over the last couple of years makes predicting the outcome a mug's game; the closest thing to a sure bet is another Conservative government, and even that's not a rock-solid guarantee, though it's the closest thing you'll get to one in Canadian politics.

I thought it might be fun if I tried to guess the outcome on three days: today, as the writ is dropped; at the halfway mark; and on election day, before the polls close.

My guesses - and they are merely guesses - are based on my reading of relative party strength, the mood of the electorate, the distribution of seats and the possible effects of vote-splitting on both the left and the right.

I've been wildly wrong before, and I expect to be wildly wrong again.

So, if people were going to the polls today, here's the outcome I'd expect:

Progressive Conservatives: 60
New Democratic Party: 14
Wildrose Alliance: 11
Alberta Liberals: 2

Misdemeanor Crimes Against Humanity

• Stickers stuck on books, impossible to remove without leaving behind awful residue that collects grime for the next thirty years. 
• Poutine. 
• Ties. Why? Whyyyy?
• The slow disappearance of mass market paperbacks. 
• Related: changes in format in the middle of a book or film series, leaving you with mismatched books or DVDs on your shelf. 
• Hair growing from your ears and nostrils despite its refusal to grow atop your skull. 
• Cooing baby sound effects used in popular music tracks.

But you know, if these are my worst problems, I must have it pretty good. And now to sour my mood...time to watch Premier Jim Prentice's live address to Albertans, a paid political advertisement brought to you by the province's perennially ill-governed citizens. 

Classic Car-Fuffle

Over the weekend Alberta Premier Jim Prentice found himself a sweet ride at a car auction down in Arizona. In the face of sub-$50 oil and warnings of public service cuts, some progressive folks are arguing that this sends the wrong message to Albertans, that it shows Prentice is just another member of the privileged 1 percent and that his wealth insulates him from the sacrifices he may very shortly ask public sector workers to make.

I don't disagree. As a pretty left wing guy, it seems wrong that some can afford to pay tens of thousands of dollars for fancy toys while others struggle to make ends meet.

But I also understand that I'm as guilty as Prentice, in a sense. After a couple of decades of hard work I'm not poor anymore (I never really was, compared to many), and over the years I, too have spent thousands of dollars on fancy toys - movies, books, Lego, computer games, board games. (On the other hand, I'm not in a position to impoverish others with drastic public spending cuts.)

My point is this: while progressives are free to criticize Prentice for spoiling himself while mulling over actions that could harm tens of thousands, that criticism is more likely to harm the progressive cause than help it. Because deep down, most people want to believe that they, too, might be in a position one day to spoil themselves. Even if you're not a fan of classic cars, nearly everyone has their own share of materialistic desires - the nice house, the rare postage stamp, the around-the-world vacation. Most of us have been programmed to sympathize with Prentice. I know for a fact that I have several family members who would have loved to buy the car Prentice purchased. They're not feeling envy - they're feeling "Good for him. He works hard, he can buy what he wants with his own money."

The amount of money counts, too. Given the exchange rate and taxes and fees, Prentice's purchase will probably only cost him around $75,000 dollars. That's only three times the amount Sylvia and I spent on our last new vehicle. It's a figure that's only just out of reach to a lot of folks in rich (yes, we're still rich) Alberta. Buying a car like this doesn't distance Prentice from ordinary Albertans, because a lot of ordinary Albertans are very well off.

When progressives chide Prentice for spending a few tens of thousands of dollars, we're the ones who seem out of touch. If we ever want to change the government in Alberta, we can't afford to appear petty or jealous. We're better off fighting to protect public institutions and holding the Conservatives accountable for their many years of mismanagement.