Alberta Votes 2023: A Choice of Eras

About 30 minutes from the time I write this, news stations will begin to report on the results of the 2023 Alberta provincial election. This time around, Albertans are choosing between the centrist New Democratic Party led by Rachel Notley and the United Conservative Party led by Danielle Smith. 

Should Rachel Notley's NDP win, I expect a middle-of-the-road government that will attempt to shore up Alberta's public health care system, balance the needs of the oil and gas industry with our collective need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect human rights, and reinvest in public education. I also expect a government reasonably free of drama and scandal. In other words, I expect something like Rachel Notley's first government term from 2015-2019. 

Should Danielle Smith's UCP win, I fully expect her government attempt to further privatize our health care, foster the ever-vocal alt-right movement in Canada, get rid of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police in favour of an Alberta police force, withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan in favour of an Alberta pension plan, slash taxes for the rich and corporations while increasing user fees for public services (including health care), and, Florida-style, attack marginalized people of all kinds through vindictive legislation. I also expect a greater-than-average level of corruption. 

Historians in the United States refer to a ten-year period from about 1815 to 1825 as the "Era of Good Feeling," renowned for its unusual optimism among the public and the political class. 

I feel like we've been in an "Era of Bad Feeling" since 2016 or so. The roots of the Trump presidency go far, far back into American history, of course, but Trump gave racists and regressive permission to say the quiet parts out loud--to openly threaten anyone not on their team, to embrace ethnocentrism and racism, and to advocate against democracy. 

I don't believe Rachel Notley's team has the power to usher in an Albertan Era of Good Feeling. I think they could deliver an Era of Relative Calm, or perhaps an Era of Hints of Better Times Ahead. 

I do believe that a UCP victory will lead to a made-in-Alberta Era of Bad Feelings. It'll be a place where the fearful and the cruel will be given outsized influence, while the thoughtful and the compassionate will have to fight to hold back the tide of regress. 

I have no idea what Albertans will choose. We'll know soon enough. 

Generation X-tinction

Last night Sylvia was out visiting Norma, so I puttered around watering the plants and trying not to choke on the wildfire smoke. This photo doesn't really do justice to the terrible air quality.
 

This one comes closer, though. My frame of mind is pretty pessimistic these days, what with <gestures at everything>. As I was shooting some photos of the apocalyptic sky, I thought about my own privilege, and how Generation X seems to be the last generation to have had a shot at living prosperously--that is, a lot of us own our own homes, we have well-paying jobs, and (perhaps) a chance at a decent retirement. Aside from a very lucky few, the Millennials, Gen Z, and those following have the cards stacked against them in terms of career opportunities, relatively stable government, general affordability, and so on. 

The post-war boom of the mid-20th century gave us the illusion and the expectation that generation after generation would enjoy more prosperity than the one preceding it. That notion has fallen apart, thanks to a tiny minority of psychopathic billionaires and their political enablers working together to hoard the planet's wealth while destroying the biosphere in the process. 

And in the midst of all this, polls still suggest that this month's provincial election is still a 50-50 race between Rachel Notley's NDP and Danielle Smith's UCP, who are hell-bent on privatizing our public institutions and reviving the coal industry even in the midst of wildfires burning down communities and poisoning our air.

What a world we've made for ourselves. 

A Bittersweet Victory, or: Orange with Envy

As a progressive I'm naturally pretty thrilled by Albertans' decision to elect an NDP government in Alberta last night. I believe new premier Rachel Notley has the smarts, compassion and grit to make Alberta a better place. 

But at the same time I'm sad that I wasn't a part of such a historic moment - and I could have been. Back in 2006 I took a job with Kevin Taft's Liberals because I honestly believed that party stood the best chance of toppling the Progressive Conservatives. Even though I considered myself a New Democrat at heart, Taft's Liberals were progressive enough to pass muster, at least when factoring in the pragmatic desire to win government. 

Well, we all know how that turned out. During the six and a half years and two elections I stuck with the Liberals, we went through three leaders and lost a little less than half our MLAs with each passing vote. After the election of 2012 I'd finally had enough, and moved on. 

I'm proud of the work I did for the Liberals, and I don't regret my years with them. But today I wish I'd followed my heart and dreamed bigger. It would have been pretty amazing to be on Notley's team, to experience victory rather than defeat, and to know that victory meant a better tomorrow for Albertans - particularly the vulnerable and disadvantaged, or so I hope and believe. 

While I'm disappointed in myself, my failure of imagination or simple cowardice - call it what you want - merely highlights the virtues of those stalwart New Democrat volunteers and perennial candidates who finally earned their richly deserved rewards last night. I'm very happy for the many Albertans who bled orange for years or even decades for their moment in history. 

Perhaps the most bittersweet moment for me was watching my friend Naomi's sister, Jessica Littlewood, win Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville for the NDP handily. When I ran there in 2008 against Ed Stelmach, he beat me by 10,000 votes. And in a strange coincidence, Naomi shot my official photographs for my campaign. Needless to say I'm delighted for Jessica and Naomi, but it doesn't take any of the sting out of that 2008 loss. 

What's important, though, is not that any particular person or party wins any particular election. What's important is that we govern ourselves with wisdom and caring, and there are people in every political party who really do have the best interests of the people at heart. That's why I'm so happy Liberal leader David Swann held on to his seat last night; he'll continue to be an important voice for public health care and farm worker safety in the Legislature, and this time around the governing party might be more sympathetic to his concerns. We can hope! 

An Orange Alberta

The NDP forms a majority government in Alberta tonight. It's a day I thought I'd never see. My reaction is excitement tinged with a hint of bittersweetness. More on that tomorrow.

Alberta Election Prediction 3 of 3

Well, here we are - if the polls are correct and people actually show up to vote and they vote the way they told the pollsters they would and if the anger I'm reading on the streets is real and not merely confined to Edmonton...than Alberta - Alberta! - could wind up with a majority NDP government sometime tomorrow night.

I can hardly believe the results myself, but I went through each riding, looked at the candidates, consulted a number of election prediction websites, compared that to my own knowledge (or lack of same) of particular ridings and incumbents, and then made my own choices, some of which (heck, many of which) might seem counter-intuitive to most Albertans, including me.

As you can see, I imagine an NDP breakthrough in the big cities, Edmonton's surrounding suburbs, the smaller cities and a few of the large towns out west. A few PCs escape the wrath of the voters in Calgary and rural Alberta, while the Wildrosers practically sweep the countryside. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark deposes Gordon Dirks, and my poor Alberta Liberals are reduced to two seats, both in Calgary. (I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up with anywhere between zero and four seats, though - Mountainview, McCall, Red Deer North and Edmonton Centre at best. But I think most traditional Alberta Liberal voters - like me - are going to back the strongest progressive choice, and at this point in time, that's the New Democrats.)

Interestingly, in my model all of the party leaders survive. I have the strangest vision of Jim Prentice losing his seat but...naaaaaah. 

Alberta Leaders' Debate 2015

As I expected, tonight's debate wasn't particularly dramatic. No one made any lethal gaffes, no one landed any devastating blows. I thought the NDP's Rachel Notley fared best, with a warm, sincere performance; she painted herself as a moderate, sensible alternative quite effectively.

Premier Prentice was mostly pretty poised, though I found it interesting he focused most of his ire at the NDP. His condescending "I know math is hard" line was the low point of the night.

Brian Jean came off as hilariously robotic, but he stayed on-message the entire night, with few slips, and I was bowled over when he acknowledged the very real threat of climate change. Good for him.

My old friend David Swann showed a lot of compassion and handled himself well during the latter half of the debate, but his tendency to read from notes hurt him a little, I think; he didn't make enough eye contact with the camera, and knocking his own binder onto the floor at one point was a little awkward.

All in all, I think this debates helps the NDP a little bit, hurts the PCs a little bit, and leaves the Wildrose and Liberal parties right where they are. 

Alberta Election Prediction 1 of 3

Albertans go back to the polls on May 5. The upheaval in Alberta politics over the last couple of years makes predicting the outcome a mug's game; the closest thing to a sure bet is another Conservative government, and even that's not a rock-solid guarantee, though it's the closest thing you'll get to one in Canadian politics.

I thought it might be fun if I tried to guess the outcome on three days: today, as the writ is dropped; at the halfway mark; and on election day, before the polls close.

My guesses - and they are merely guesses - are based on my reading of relative party strength, the mood of the electorate, the distribution of seats and the possible effects of vote-splitting on both the left and the right.

I've been wildly wrong before, and I expect to be wildly wrong again.

So, if people were going to the polls today, here's the outcome I'd expect:

Progressive Conservatives: 60
New Democratic Party: 14
Wildrose Alliance: 11
Alberta Liberals: 2

The First Rule of Debate Club

The first rule of Debate Club is: you must talk about Debate Club. As if people didn't already realize that I'm a bit of a geek, the first rule of Debate Club compels me to reveal that I was a member back when I attended Leduc Junior High School. I surprised myself by discovering that I was, in fact, a pretty good debater, at least for our age group. That's me holding the statue after returning from our first debate team victory in Westlock. (Check out the corduroy pants - I think they were emerald green.) I don't remember who was on my team for that first tournament; it could have been David Ruel and Michelle Wilson, who are standing to my immediate right, or it might have been Jason Hewitt and Mark Lede, who are also to my right, but in the back row.

I do remember - quite vividly - the profound shock I felt when I was named top speaker of the tournament. I remember thinking that I'd performed poorly, but apparently the judges felt otherwise. Mark and Jason and I went on to compete in the provincials, narrowly missing a spot in the semi-finals to place fifth overall. I remember we felt pretty ripped off after losing one debate to a trio of pretty girls a year or two younger than we were. We felt we'd won the debate pretty handily, and that the judges awarded the victory to the other team out of sympathy. In hindsight, I'm sure the judges ruled correctly.

I don't recall which issues we debated, although I have a faint memory that nuclear disarmament may have been among them; on the other hand, that might have been a practise topic. It was certainly one of the biggest issues of the 80s, one that loomed large in the culture of the time.

I wonder if any of our provincial politicians participated in Debate Club when they were younger. I'd say that the NDP's Rachel Notley might have, or perhaps former Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft; maybe our imported neocon Ted Morton was a member down in the States.

But then, if they were, surely the first rule would have already compelled them to talk about it.