A Bittersweet Victory, or: Orange with Envy

As a progressive I'm naturally pretty thrilled by Albertans' decision to elect an NDP government in Alberta last night. I believe new premier Rachel Notley has the smarts, compassion and grit to make Alberta a better place. 

But at the same time I'm sad that I wasn't a part of such a historic moment - and I could have been. Back in 2006 I took a job with Kevin Taft's Liberals because I honestly believed that party stood the best chance of toppling the Progressive Conservatives. Even though I considered myself a New Democrat at heart, Taft's Liberals were progressive enough to pass muster, at least when factoring in the pragmatic desire to win government. 

Well, we all know how that turned out. During the six and a half years and two elections I stuck with the Liberals, we went through three leaders and lost a little less than half our MLAs with each passing vote. After the election of 2012 I'd finally had enough, and moved on. 

I'm proud of the work I did for the Liberals, and I don't regret my years with them. But today I wish I'd followed my heart and dreamed bigger. It would have been pretty amazing to be on Notley's team, to experience victory rather than defeat, and to know that victory meant a better tomorrow for Albertans - particularly the vulnerable and disadvantaged, or so I hope and believe. 

While I'm disappointed in myself, my failure of imagination or simple cowardice - call it what you want - merely highlights the virtues of those stalwart New Democrat volunteers and perennial candidates who finally earned their richly deserved rewards last night. I'm very happy for the many Albertans who bled orange for years or even decades for their moment in history. 

Perhaps the most bittersweet moment for me was watching my friend Naomi's sister, Jessica Littlewood, win Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville for the NDP handily. When I ran there in 2008 against Ed Stelmach, he beat me by 10,000 votes. And in a strange coincidence, Naomi shot my official photographs for my campaign. Needless to say I'm delighted for Jessica and Naomi, but it doesn't take any of the sting out of that 2008 loss. 

What's important, though, is not that any particular person or party wins any particular election. What's important is that we govern ourselves with wisdom and caring, and there are people in every political party who really do have the best interests of the people at heart. That's why I'm so happy Liberal leader David Swann held on to his seat last night; he'll continue to be an important voice for public health care and farm worker safety in the Legislature, and this time around the governing party might be more sympathetic to his concerns. We can hope! 

An Orange Alberta

The NDP forms a majority government in Alberta tonight. It's a day I thought I'd never see. My reaction is excitement tinged with a hint of bittersweetness. More on that tomorrow.

Alberta Election Prediction 3 of 3

Well, here we are - if the polls are correct and people actually show up to vote and they vote the way they told the pollsters they would and if the anger I'm reading on the streets is real and not merely confined to Edmonton...than Alberta - Alberta! - could wind up with a majority NDP government sometime tomorrow night.

I can hardly believe the results myself, but I went through each riding, looked at the candidates, consulted a number of election prediction websites, compared that to my own knowledge (or lack of same) of particular ridings and incumbents, and then made my own choices, some of which (heck, many of which) might seem counter-intuitive to most Albertans, including me.

As you can see, I imagine an NDP breakthrough in the big cities, Edmonton's surrounding suburbs, the smaller cities and a few of the large towns out west. A few PCs escape the wrath of the voters in Calgary and rural Alberta, while the Wildrosers practically sweep the countryside. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark deposes Gordon Dirks, and my poor Alberta Liberals are reduced to two seats, both in Calgary. (I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up with anywhere between zero and four seats, though - Mountainview, McCall, Red Deer North and Edmonton Centre at best. But I think most traditional Alberta Liberal voters - like me - are going to back the strongest progressive choice, and at this point in time, that's the New Democrats.)

Interestingly, in my model all of the party leaders survive. I have the strangest vision of Jim Prentice losing his seat but...naaaaaah. 

Alberta Leaders' Debate 2015

As I expected, tonight's debate wasn't particularly dramatic. No one made any lethal gaffes, no one landed any devastating blows. I thought the NDP's Rachel Notley fared best, with a warm, sincere performance; she painted herself as a moderate, sensible alternative quite effectively.

Premier Prentice was mostly pretty poised, though I found it interesting he focused most of his ire at the NDP. His condescending "I know math is hard" line was the low point of the night.

Brian Jean came off as hilariously robotic, but he stayed on-message the entire night, with few slips, and I was bowled over when he acknowledged the very real threat of climate change. Good for him.

My old friend David Swann showed a lot of compassion and handled himself well during the latter half of the debate, but his tendency to read from notes hurt him a little, I think; he didn't make enough eye contact with the camera, and knocking his own binder onto the floor at one point was a little awkward.

All in all, I think this debates helps the NDP a little bit, hurts the PCs a little bit, and leaves the Wildrose and Liberal parties right where they are. 

Alberta Election Prediction 2 of 3

Click to embiggen Earl's wild-ass crazy election prediction map!

While part of me still believes that the polls must be wrong, they are at least consistent, giving the Wildrose and NDP an edge over the trailing Progressive Conservatives. It seems almost crazy to believe that Albertans might elect a government other than the PCs, but I suppose stranger things have happened in Alberta...if rarely.

In offering my second seat tally for Alberta's 2015 election, I'm also taking into account what I'm hearing from friends and family - and that is an exclusive determination to vote for anyone but the PCs, even from people that have voted Tory for decades. And finally, there is the failure of the Alberta Liberals to run a full slate of candidates, which leaves a substantial pool of supporters without Liberal candidates to vote for. If most of them decide to choose an NDP candidate as their next-best option, that could swing a few tight races.

This time around I reviewed each constituency before choosing a hypothetical winner and coloured in the map as I went. Green constituencies are Wildrose, orange NDP, Liberal red, blue PC and light blue Alberta Party. Even as I write this I have not as yet counted out the seats; I will do that right...now.

The Tally:
NDP: 32
Wildrose: 28
Progressive Conservatives: 21
Liberal: 5
Alberta Party: 1

As you can see, in this scenario the Wildrosers take almost all of the rural seats and score a handful in Calgary. The New Democrats dominate Edmonton and snag a couple of relatively progressive rural seats. The PCs hang on to Calgary and keep a small number of their rural seats. And the Liberals, somewhat improbably, wind up back where they started.

Wow. What a mess that would be, huh? I suppose in this scenario the PCs and the Wildrose would merge in order to hang on to government, infuriating half the population. In reality, I'm probably being a little too kind to the progressive parties here; the Liberals could easily wind up with two or even zero seats, probably losing them to PCs, and the NDs are unlikely to pick up those rural seats in western Alberta; these are my surprise/sentimentality picks. In reality they'll probably go Wildrose.

It's pretty foolish of me to throw this silly analysis into the world before the leaders' debate, but it was a fun exercise. One more prediction to go!

The Voice of Gravel

I wound up on TV again today, captured in one of those man-on-the-street interviews that sometimes capture unwary pedestrians innocently wandering about in search of lunch. When the CTV crew approached me I was sure they were going to ask about the election, a topic on which I could have expounded with a reasonable degree of eloquence.

But to my surprise, I was asked if I noticed the gravel in the streets.

"There's gravel in the streets?" I thought. Sylvia would have loved this, because she knows I'm the last person in the world to notice disorder of this sort. The reporter asked me what I thought about the condition of the roads, and somewhat nonplussed I answered "Well, there are a few potholes, I guess..."

Clearly I wasn't delivering the desired soundbite, so the reporter helpfully prodded me in the right direction with a couple of leading questions about street sweeping and dings in my windshield. I dutifully allowed that yes, the streets would look better once swept, and I did indeed have a crack in my windshield.

A couple of friends saw the story on the news, but I haven't seen it myself. I'd be interested to know what narrative they spun out of my responses. That's the magic of editing...

Alberta Election Prediction 1 of 3

Albertans go back to the polls on May 5. The upheaval in Alberta politics over the last couple of years makes predicting the outcome a mug's game; the closest thing to a sure bet is another Conservative government, and even that's not a rock-solid guarantee, though it's the closest thing you'll get to one in Canadian politics.

I thought it might be fun if I tried to guess the outcome on three days: today, as the writ is dropped; at the halfway mark; and on election day, before the polls close.

My guesses - and they are merely guesses - are based on my reading of relative party strength, the mood of the electorate, the distribution of seats and the possible effects of vote-splitting on both the left and the right.

I've been wildly wrong before, and I expect to be wildly wrong again.

So, if people were going to the polls today, here's the outcome I'd expect:

Progressive Conservatives: 60
New Democratic Party: 14
Wildrose Alliance: 11
Alberta Liberals: 2