Monday, May 04, 2015

Alberta Election Prediction 3 of 3

Well, here we are - if the polls are correct and people actually show up to vote and they vote the way they told the pollsters they would and if the anger I'm reading on the streets is real and not merely confined to Edmonton...than Alberta - Alberta! - could wind up with a majority NDP government sometime tomorrow night.

I can hardly believe the results myself, but I went through each riding, looked at the candidates, consulted a number of election prediction websites, compared that to my own knowledge (or lack of same) of particular ridings and incumbents, and then made my own choices, some of which (heck, many of which) might seem counter-intuitive to most Albertans, including me.

As you can see, I imagine an NDP breakthrough in the big cities, Edmonton's surrounding suburbs, the smaller cities and a few of the large towns out west. A few PCs escape the wrath of the voters in Calgary and rural Alberta, while the Wildrosers practically sweep the countryside. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark deposes Gordon Dirks, and my poor Alberta Liberals are reduced to two seats, both in Calgary. (I wouldn't be surprised if they wound up with anywhere between zero and four seats, though - Mountainview, McCall, Red Deer North and Edmonton Centre at best. But I think most traditional Alberta Liberal voters - like me - are going to back the strongest progressive choice, and at this point in time, that's the New Democrats.)

Interestingly, in my model all of the party leaders survive. I have the strangest vision of Jim Prentice losing his seat but...naaaaaah. 

1 comment:

Stephen Fitzpatrick said...

In many ways. it really is an Imperfect Storm for the PCs: anger at the governing party from all sides, but accompanied by bitter resentment from Wildrose supporters who feel betrayed. The Liberals, moderate opposition of old, are in a shambles with no leader and only two candidates with any street cred, and the NDP are riding high on an energetic new leader who handled herself masterfully during the leader's debate. Couple that with Prentice's mishandlings, missteps, and flip flopping, and we could very well be looking at the end of Canada's longest lasting political dynasty.

Even if the PC somehow manage to claw out a minority government with their incessant fearmongering ("Change! Ooo, chaaaaange!" "Soooocialism!"), the next leadership review should not be favourable to Mr. Prentice.

Which is the cherry on top, for many.