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Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Alberta Election Prediction 1 of 3

Albertans go back to the polls on May 5. The upheaval in Alberta politics over the last couple of years makes predicting the outcome a mug's game; the closest thing to a sure bet is another Conservative government, and even that's not a rock-solid guarantee, though it's the closest thing you'll get to one in Canadian politics.

I thought it might be fun if I tried to guess the outcome on three days: today, as the writ is dropped; at the halfway mark; and on election day, before the polls close.

My guesses - and they are merely guesses - are based on my reading of relative party strength, the mood of the electorate, the distribution of seats and the possible effects of vote-splitting on both the left and the right.

I've been wildly wrong before, and I expect to be wildly wrong again.

So, if people were going to the polls today, here's the outcome I'd expect:

Progressive Conservatives: 60
New Democratic Party: 14
Wildrose Alliance: 11
Alberta Liberals: 2

1 comment:

Stephen Fitzpatrick said...

That seems a pretty reasonable (albeit discouraging) spread. My biggest hope is for a decent turnout, but it is hard to blame Albertans for being apathetic.

I still do, though.